Stocks Follow

It looks like we have mixed evidence as to whether last week represented a Capitulatory low. My best guess is that last week will be an intermediate, though not final, low mark. In the plus column, we have: -Record levels of Short Interest; -VIX spiked up over 30 (this has not been a good entry in the past); -Merrill Lynch survey shows Fund managers running very high cash levels -1,304 new lows on the NYSE, we saw (a record high). -The Selling stampede lasted 39 days -- unusually long -AAII Bullish Index dropped below 25 again -A short term peak in blog traffic In the minus column, we have: -Volume picked up, but didn't match the levels seen in January or March lows; -Bottom callers are out in full force (that's rarely seen at ultimate lows) -Merrill survey have showed high cash levels in January, February (and here) and March and June; As often as not, stocks went lower; -VIX at 30 may be good for a bounce, but it is far below true panic lows of the past; -A majority of economists believe the US will avoid a recession (why are they always the last to know?); -Confidence levels...