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Hard Times In The High Desert For most exurbanites, moving back to the city--the preferred option of planners and urban boosters--is not an attractive option. These people could never afford a charming townhouse in Portland's Pearl District or a loft in New York's SoHo. For them, the "urban option" means the prospect of a dreary blocky apartment complex in a noisy, crowded, less-than-genteel section of Los Angeles or another large city. ...To my mind, harboring ill will toward the aspirations of exurbanites is hardly "progressive," at least from a social democratic point of view. Yet many on the so-called left feel that what is generally considered upward mobility needs to be curbed so that the hoi polloi can better live according to the prescriptions of their more enlightened, usually higher-educated and more affluent "betters." In contrast, a more humane, and fundamentally democratic, approach would be to find ways to help these communities thrive. The first step: local job creation. Even without the excessive prices associated with "peak oil" theories, gas prices and car expenses do place a considerable burden on many exurbanites. Developing more economic opportunities closer to these communities would relieve this financial burden, while also cutting energy consumption. OPEC Raises 2009, 2010 Oil Demand Forecasts on Economic Rebound (Bloomberg) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised its global oil demand forecasts for this year and 2010 on expectations the world economy will return to growth. OPEC, responsible for about 40 percent of worldwide oil supply, boosted its 2010 outlook by 150,000 barrels a day and 2009 by 140,000 barrels a day. The group now predicts that consumption will contract 1.8 percent this year to average 84.05 million barrels a day, and then expand 0.6 percent in 2010 to 84.56 million a day. “Evidence of an impending upturn in the world economy appears to be gathering,” OPEC’s Vienna-based secretariat said today in its monthly market report. Oil prices around $70 a barrel “are likely to persist.” 'Oil price rise may hurt recovery' If oil prices continue to rise, they could damage a fragile economic recovery, the International Energy Agency's executive director Nobuo Tanaka warned today. U.S. Crude-Oil Supplies Fell Last Week, Survey Shows (Bloomberg) -- U.S. crude-oil inventories probably fell last week as refineries took delivery of less of the raw material before they idle units for seasonal maintenance, a Bloomberg News survey showed. U.S. refineries often shut units for maintenance in September and October as gasoline demand drops and before heating-oil use increases. Crude-oil imports fell 5 percent to an average 9.1 million barrels a day in the week ended Sept. 4. Total Struggles to Reverse Output Drop Amid Slowdown (Bloomberg) -- Total SA, Europe’s third-largest oil producer, is struggling to counter falling production as the economic slowdown erodes demand for energy and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries limits output. The Paris-based explorer pumps about one third of its output from OPEC members, a larger proportion than rivals such as BP Plc partly because of France’s links with the Mideast and Africa. It has also made finds off the Angolan coast and is investing in Venezuela, where President Hugo Chavez has expelled producers refusing to accept new contract terms. Angola Is U.S. Priority as Rising Oil Output Boosts Influence (Bloomberg) -- Donald Steinberg arrived in Angola in 1995 as U.S. ambassador to find American oilmen doing more than drilling for coastal crude. “They were, in fact, the American ambassadors to Angola in that period,” Steinberg recalls. “The only real relationship was through the oil companies.” Angola, currently Africa’s top oil producer, is now a priority in Washington. Hillary Clinton’s overnight visit last month -- the first for a U.S. secretary of state -- sent the message that America is eager to help transform the former Cold War battleground into a stable energy giant with strong democratic institutions and transparent business practices. Petrobras Finds More Oil as Gabrielli Sees ‘Fantastic Moment’ (Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA found another deposit of oil and natural gas in Brazil’s Santos Basin as Chief Executive Officer Jose Sergio Gabrielli sought to reassure international investors about the company’s prospects. The discovery was made together with BG Group Plc and Repsol YPF SA after a fourth well was drilled in the BM-S-9 block off the country’s southeastern coast, Petrobras, Brazil’s state-run oil company, said in a statement last night. The Abare Oeste field is neighbor to the Carioca, Guara and Iguacu fields, where the company has already reported the existence of crude. Bharat Petroleum Oil Imports May Rise 50% to Record (Bloomberg) -- Bharat Petroleum Corp., an Indian state-refiner, said its crude-oil imports may rise 50 percent to a record next year after completing expansions to meet demand in the second-fastest growing major economy. Overseas purchases may climb to 24 million metric tons in the year starting April 1, from 16 million this year, finance director S.K. Joshi said in an interview in Mumbai yesterday. Eni Shuts Livorno Refinery as Unions Protest Job Plan (Bloomberg) -- Eni SpA, Italy’s biggest energy company, closed its refinery in Livorno, potentially curbing fuel supplies amid Europe’s glut, as unions protested against a risk of job cuts in a possible sale. All deliveries have been blocked except chemicals needed for plant security, said Antonio Fidanza, secretary general for the petroleum energy division of Italy’s biggest union, Cgil, in an interview. The plant has been shut since Sept. 13, he said. An Eni spokeswoman couldn’t immediately comment. Mexico Oil Bonds Raise $2.4 Billion to Bolster Public Finances (Bloomberg) -- Mexico’s government raised 32 billion pesos ($2.4 billion) by selling oil-backed debt to local banks, part of an effort to alleviate budget shortfalls among states, Mexican Finance Minister Agustin Carstens said. The 13-year debt, yielding 181 basis points over the interbank TIIE swap rate, was sold in a private offering to 12 banks in Mexico, Carstens said yesterday in Mexico City. The debt issuance is backed by a rainy-day oil fund that gets money when crude oil exports sell for more than the budgeted amount. Newcastle Weekly Coal Exports Fall, Ship Queue Drops (Bloomberg) -- Coal shipments from Australia’s Newcastle port, the world’s biggest export harbor for the fuel, fell 5.6 percent last week while the number of vessels waiting to load declined. E.ON Delays Building Russian Electricity Unit on Weak Demand (Bloomberg) -- E.ON AG, Germany’s largest utility, postponed the commissioning of a coal-fired unit in Russia and ruled out further power acquisitions in the country for at least three years because of the economic slowdown. Audit: Gov't could lose millions in gas royalties WASHINGTON – The federal government risks losing millions of dollars in royalties from natural gas production because it does not promptly determine and collect when it gets shortchanged, according to congressional auditors. The Government Accountability Office said in a report Monday that the Minerals Management Service, which manages oil and gas production on public lands, does not have the tools or staff necessary to check that companies are paying the government what it is owed in royalties. Pakistani Police Thwart Militant Attack on Karachi Oil Terminal (Bloomberg) -- Pakistani police say they thwarted an overnight attack on an oil terminal in the southern city of Karachi and are investigating whether it was carried out by Taliban militants. Russia should sell oil and gas for roubles - Dvorkovich MOSCOW (Itar-Tass) - Russia should gradually switch to selling its oil and gas and other raw resources for roubles to turn the rouble into a key regional reserve currency, the Kremlin’s top economic adviser, Arkady Dvorkovich, said on Tuesday. “If we can somehow interlink the rouble with those goods that we have today, i.e. energy resources – oil, gas and other raw materials, and begin to trade in oil and gas contracts for roubles, the rouble will gradually become an essential currency for many countries,” he said. Russian energy in disarray The once all-powerful Russian energy sector appears to be on unpredictable and shaky grounds today. The development of the giant Kovykta gas field, once considered as a major project, has been placed on hold; the jewel in the crown Shtokman field is in trouble; Sakhalin-2 is being forced to divert its gas to the strategic Russian Far East for domestic consumption, while original plans to sell this gas to China are being abandoned. These fundamental changes come at a time when less-than-transparent deals are taking place in the ownership of Russian oil and gas companies. That raises the question of whether these developments are related and if so, what impact, if any, they could have on European and Asian energy security. Ghanem 'is gone' Shokri Ghanem, the chairman of Libya's National Oil Company (NOC), is no longer in the post, a senior source in the Libyan General People's Congress, said today. Asked about media reports that Ghanem had resigned, the source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters: "He is gone." Obama Urged to Ready Tougher Iran Sanctions, Military Strike (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. should begin preparing crippling sanctions on Iran and publicly make clear that a military strike is possible should the Iranian government press ahead with its nuclear effort, a bipartisan policy group said. “If biting sanctions do not persuade the Islamic Republic to demonstrate sincerity in negotiations and give up its enrichment activities, the White House will have to begin serious consideration of the option of a U.S.-led military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities,” said the study from the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington. China showers gifts on resources-rich Timor DILI (Reuters) – Dili's gleaming new Presidential Palace and Foreign Ministry, gifts from China, stand in stark contrast to nearby burned-out buildings and are symbols of how the energy-hungry superpower is growing closer to tiny, oil-rich East Timor. Norway hands left historic win Norway's left-wing coalition held onto a razor-thin majority in Monday's general election after a campaign pitting improvements to the welfare state against tax cuts in the oil-rich economy. Labour Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg declared victory for his government, which was seen winning a slim, one-seat majority with 99.4% of votes counted. California feud breaks out on clean energy plan SAN FRANCISCO/LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will veto a bill requiring the state to get a third of its electricity from solar, wind and other renewable sources, his staff said on Monday in a fight that shows the difficulties of addressing climate change fast. New Oil Discoveries You Should Know Peak oil enthusiasts seem convinced that the world is heading for a cataclysmic change as the production of oil declines over the next generation. Predictions range from food riots to mass starvation to the extinction of the human race. There's only one problem with all this - the industry keeps finding more and more oil. Peak Oil Theory in Crisis Peak Oil cult membership may wane now that scientists have proved fossil fuels can be created synthetically by replicating the high pressure, high temperature conditions found in the upper mantle of the earth's crust. In other words, the fossils of animals and plants aren't needed to produce oil and gas, which means oil and natural gas will be easier to find and may abound all over the world. Peak oil and an economic recovery Peak Oil is widely known to be the point at which oil production reaches its highest point and thereafter declines. Most people expect that this point will be reached in the very near future. Others believe we reached the highest point of oil production in the first half of the present decade and that from now on it is all down hill. They are correct. A detailed analysis prepared for The Oil Drum by Tony Erikson provides reasonable evidence that Peak Oil occurred in 2008. It contends that peak production of 74.8 million barrels per day was achieved in July 2008 and has been in decline since then. Current production is estimated to be about 71 million barrels per day, a decline of 5 per cent, with a further decline of about 7 per cent expected over the next 15 months. Blind Spot: Peak Oil & the Coming Global Crisis In this haunting portrait of America's oil-fueled excesses, director Adolfo Doring explores the inextricable link between the energy we use, the way we run our economy, and the multiplying threats that now confront the environmental health and stability of our planet. Taking as its starting point the inevitable energy depletion scenario known as "Peak Oil," the film surveys a fascinating range of the latest intellectual, political, and scientific thought to make the case that by whatever measure of greed, wishful thinking, neglect, or ignorance, we now find ourselves at a disturbing crossroads: we can continue to burn fossil fuels and witness the collapse of our ecology, or we can choose not to and witness the collapse of our economy. Apocalypse Now? Dark Visions At Toronto Film Festival TORONTO (Reuters) - A new wave of documentaries at this year's Toronto International Film Festival poses a disturbing question: is environmental and social disaster on a global scale imminent and perhaps inevitable? Doomsday visions captured by three filmmakers at the annual industry event may have seemed a bit implausible only a couple of years ago. But after the global economy's near-death experience over the past 12 months, such ideas may no longer strike audiences as radical or hard to fathom. Against the grain on Norman Borlaug The criticism was not so much aimed at the man himself, but for the biotech legacy he played such a major role in creating. After all, this was the man who arguably did more than any other to nurture the era of monocrops, GM foods and the intensive use of petrochemical pesticides and fertilisers. He may well have saved a billion people from imminent starvation, but by doing so, say his critics, he also inadvertently helped to plant the seed for future environmental woes. China committed to peaceful nuclear policy Wang said China's peaceful use of nuclear energy had entered a fast development phase. China had established a complete nuclear industrial system and had the capacity to assure a requisite fuel supply for its nuclear energy development. 1.27 million displaced by China's Three Gorges Dam BEIJING (AFP) – China has relocated 1.27 million people to make way for the controversial Three Gorges dam development, the[...]