Commodities Trading Information Follow

Softs Review

Did you ever get the impression that just when you commit to a fresh long (or short) position, the market you're trading then swiftly decides to go the other way against you? I swear I feel that way sometimes and lately that has been the case. It makes me gun-shy. Then when I neutralize or square up, or get stopped out, it goes the other way...At times like this I strongly believe that there are trading programs specifically designed to take advantage of risk tolerance levels. Anyway, the weaker dollar, the prospect of increasing inflation and a general easing of concerns that global demand for commodities is falling helped spur much of the Soft complex higher last week. The precipitous drop in cocoa prices however has its roots in the story on a sell off that began in London when larger supplies were reported. CCK futures traded below 3100 for the first time since January, the troubles in the Ivory Coast continue. http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFJOE72H0H220110318?feedType=RSS&feedName=investingNews For the week ahead I remain long put spreads in sugar, still looking for a technical move lower. SBK however first needs to needs to drop below 26.90, if it’s going to revisit 26.00, otherwise I will have to re-evaluate. I have no position in coffee, yet suspect a potential Head and Shoulders top pattern is forming, with the right shoulder now underway. This would project a pronounced move downward to 245 and may cause me to issue a bearish recommendation at some point. As a result consideration should be given for buying cheap out of the money puts, or perhaps put spreads at some point. Continuing to leave cotton alone at present and stand aside. And in cocoa, while I still hold a long call spread in July, that is only after having taken a partial profit by having rolled up a previous long call leg.  I actually may consider lifting the short leg at some point and letting the long call ride.